Prediction
06
Fire-spread forecasting
A short-horizon forecast of where fire could travel — isochrones from 15 minutes to 24 hours, seeded from the detected hotspots, a point, or the fire's own perimeter.
How it worksIt pulls LANDFIRE surface fuel plus slope and aspect for the fire's neighborhood, combines them with live wind and a fuel-moisture scenario, and computes a Rothermel rate of spread. Fire is advanced with elliptical propagation; arrival times contour into nested isochrones. Past a few hours the weather is stepped over the run rather than held constant, so a forecast follows the wind shift instead of ignoring it. Beyond the surface fire it flags crown fire initiation from LANDFIRE canopy bands, an indicative ember-spotting zone downwind, and a burn-probability mode that runs the forecast many times over a spread of wind directions.
Why it fitsRothermel is the surface-fire model behind BehavePlus and FARSITE — the lineage the fire community trusts. Grounding it in real fuel, terrain, and wind gives a defensible, directional read on near-term movement. It is short-horizon decision support, not a validated perimeter.